A report by researchers at the University of California, San Diego revealed Thursday that the United States lags behind other major economies in terms of confidence on climate change.
The study provides scientific evidence to assess how effectively governments are meeting their commitments to the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement, which aims to reduce CO2 emissions that contribute to climate change. is the first study to provide
The study also found that countries making the most ambitious commitments were most likely to meet their targets. The European Union will take the lead with the most credible and strong commitments. But the findings suggest that despite the US having less ambitious commitments under Paris, it is not expected to deliver on those promises.
“Because the pledges outlined in the agreement are not legally binding, the success of the agreement hinges on trust in the system that when governments make promises, they will deliver on those promises,” the study said. said Professor David Victor, lead author of , who holds a PhD in Industrial Innovation from UCSD’s School of Global Policy and Strategy and is co-director of the Deep Decarbonization Initiative. “Our results show that the consensus framework works well.
“The Paris Agreement makes countries make ambitious commitments. “What we need next is a better system to make sure countries are actually doing what they promise.”
The survey is based on a sample of registrants of the Conference of the Parties. The conference is made up of more than 800 of his diplomatic and scientific experts who have participated in climate policy debates for decades. The study is important because this group of experts are the people “in the room” when important policy decisions are made, and are in a position to assess what their country and others are likely to achieve. said the researchers.
These experts were asked to rate member states (including their own) to assess how much each country has committed to mitigating global warming. climate crisis. They were also asked to rate the extent to which countries have credible pledges.
The study selected a subset of survey responses from eight countries and the EU as being most relevant to climate mitigation policies. They rate European goals as the most ambitious and credible. Europe is followed by China, Australia, South Africa and India. The United States and Brazil rank last in the credibility category and surpass Saudi Arabia in terms of ambition.
In the analysis, experts from North American countries were the most pessimistic about their commitments, both in their willingness and ability to meet the pact’s climate goals.
“It is clear from all the responses that the United States clearly has a problem, even though the recent Inflation Reduction Act was signed into law after our investigation was closed,” said Victor. said. “This law is a big step in the right direction, but it doesn’t deliver on the same investments that many other counties have already committed.
“I think the main question our study raises is, ‘How does the United States build credibility?’ And ‘Why does credibility matter?’ ?”
The researchers conducted a statistical analysis of the dataset and found that countries with more stable governments were more likely to make highly credible and bold promises.
However, the authors found that China and other non-democratic countries were expected to honor their pledges.
– City News Service