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    Home»Business»The economy is starting to cool, but the job market is ‘like hell’
    Business

    The economy is starting to cool, but the job market is ‘like hell’

    admin4By admin4September 1, 2022No Comments
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    U.S. employers announced just 20,485 layoffs in August, the lowest year-to-date total since 1993, according to data released Thursday by outplacement firms Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

    A separate report from the Labor Department said initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 27 fell to 232,000, down 5,000 from the previous week’s level and revised downwards at 6,000 claims. Your bill is now at its lowest level in two months.

    Recent employment data, including the July jobs report and turnover survey, came after the labor market neared recovery from the pandemic and as the Federal Reserve took extreme steps to curb and contain inflation. defied expectations by analysts and economists that the labor market would cool. demand.

    “The labor market is not just a frenzy, it’s a hell on fire,” said Megan Greene, global chief economist at the Kroll Institute and a senior fellow at Brown University.

    The Federal Reserve sees the current ratio of two job openings to all job seekers as a potential driver of higher wages, which will lead to higher prices and lower inflation. We believe it will continue to rise. Friday’s federal jobs report will watch closely for signs of slowing job growth.

    Economists estimate that about 300,000 jobs will be added in August. This is his first monthly increase since April 2021, down sharply from July. The August jobs report is due to be released on Friday morning.

    layoffs looming

    layoff notice Dominating the business headlines these days, Ron Hetrick, senior labor economist at labor market analysis firm Rightcast, said while this could indicate a broader market crack, it also represents a firm- or industry-focused development. .

    Most of these announcements are of technology and technology-adjacent companies expanding their workforces to meet the sudden demand for services during the pandemic.

    People walk past

    “Things are cooling down again, so these industries [scale back] About the jobs they did,” he said.

    as a pandemic Mitigation, other industries see more demand. In 2020-2021, people are back to spending on vacations, dining in restaurants, and other areas of service, but those activities weren’t easily accessible in his 2020-2021. The change has weakened some companies, said Gus Faucher, senior vice president and chief of his economist. With PNC Financial Services Group. “Having said that, the demand in the economy is still strong and many businesses are still understaffed, so it is fairly easy for laid-off workers to find new jobs.”

    BLS data show that less than one in three unemployed people has been out of work for 15 weeks or longer, barring a brief dip in mid-2020 when the labor market began to surge after the Great Recession. , a level not seen since before the Great Recession. Pandemic lockdown eased.

    But companies still need workers

    Labor shortages are weighing heavily on businesses in some parts of the country. After surveying 444 members across its six state districts, the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis said most respondents plan to remain employed over the next six months, and 10% have cut their jobs. They found that those who maintained a stable state reported anxiety. About being able to keep the workers they had.
    Businesses in states such as Maryland, Virginia and North Carolina are also paying attention to staffing, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, but few are cutting jobs, said a vice president and regional executive. R. Andrew Bauer said: recent podcasts.

    “What they are likely to do is, if a position opens, they will be slow to fill that position in anticipation of what will happen,” he said.

    There are several systemic challenges to closing the labor shortage gap.Small workforce Below pre-pandemic levels, the labor force participation rate has fallen from around 67% in the early 2000s to just above 62% in July. Economists had expected that percentage to rise as the economy added jobs. But this year it really fell.

    “Those four to five percentage points represent the millions we really need,” says Hetrick.

    A restaurant worker prepares a sauce at a Washington, DC tavern

    Economists have no idea who these missing workers are and who they are due to lack of childcare, health-related concerns, potentially restrictive immigration policies, and early retirement that hastened decades of demographic dynamics. We’re continuing to look into what’s keeping us out of the workplace.

    There are also many unknowns, such as the impact on depressed or less attached workers, or workers suffering from the lingering or chronic effects of Covid-19.A recent study from the Brookings Institution It is estimated that up to 4 million people have lost their workforce due to “long Covid,” according to.

    Bonnie Dowling, associate partner at business consulting firm McKinsey, said the scales still tipped heavily toward workers despite growing economic uncertainty.

    “If you’re in a market where one person is looking but there are two jobs, I don’t think it’s a seller’s market,” she said.
    Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says

    Dowling was a co-author of a recent McKinsey report that sought to address a severe shortage of workers and what may be turning young employees into side jobs.

    Aspects such as workplace flexibility, meaningful work and rewards were cited as some of the key desires, according to the report.

    “I don’t think many of them will return to the labor market without the promise that these needs will be met,” she said. “And they made it clear that if they came in with that promise and they weren’t kept, they were willing to leave again.”

    “We have to fundamentally rethink how we work,” she added.



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