After a string of victories for progressives and centrists over the past year, the number of populist leaders worldwide has fallen to its lowest level in 20 years, according to an analysis by the Tony Blair Institute. . 800,000 in two years.
Research suggests that 2023 could be an equally decisive year for populism, with significant elections in Turkey and Poland. These two elections could bring down two of the world’s most influential populist governments, but that would require the divided opposition parties in both countries to form a more defined coalition program than they have so far managed. you may need to.
Among the populists who lost power, Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro and Slovenia’s Janez Janza lost relatively close elections in 2022, while the Philippines’ Rodrigo Duterte was limited to one term and slated for re-election. I couldn’t run. In Sri Lanka, Gotabaya Rajapaksa was overthrown in protests.
According to the report, 1.7 billion people were living under populist leaders in early 2023, compared with 2.5 billion in 2020. Both left and right populism, he says, are defined by his two claims that the country’s “true people” are trapped. The moral conflict with the “outsider” and, secondly, that nothing constrains the will of the “true man”.
According to the report, much of the decline of populism has occurred in Latin America, especially with Bolsonaro’s defeat in Brazil, along with “moderates across Latin America that disavowed populist rhetoric and focused on progressive economies.” The left-wing generation election” is also included. social rights rather than the populist left’s historical focus on industrial nationalization”.
The report also notes that the U.S. midterm elections underperformed moderates, with a majority of candidates backed by Donald Trump, who endorsed right-wing nationalism and conspiracy theories, not being elected. .
“After defeating several moderate Republicans in battleground state primaries, Trump lost most of those races in November, costing Republican control of the Senate and several governors. What they deserve is losing all state-level elections involving election administration in battleground states,” the report said.
“Congress blocked Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election, but U.S. voters blocked efforts by Trump supporters to control future elections in 2022.” The book warns that the defeat of the Trumpist rejection of democracy may not signal a long-term defeat of cultural populism across the United States.
The report divides populism into three broad categories. Socio-economic populism that appeals to people on the left. Counter-establishment populism focused on targeting elites.
It said cultural populism still had a significant impact on U.S. politics despite the defeat of a Trump-backed candidate and doubts about the former president’s prospects for 2024, another leading candidate. “Even if Trump loses, cultural populism is likely to persist within the Republican Party.
The report – Fight Back and Rebuild: Expanding the Playbook Against Populism – finds that the remaining examples of populist governments around the world (7 out of 11) are almost completely demolished, as opposed to economic or dissident populists. claims to be made up of right-wing cultural populists.
However, cultural populist governments have struggled to form effective governments, especially in the face of economic challenges and complex issues such as Covid, the report notes, citing a 2022 target for Brazil, the Philippines, It points out that four countries, Slovenia and Sri Lanka, have been ousted from power.
However, the report strongly cautions against premature claims that populism has lost, noting that in 2022 populists were part of a coalition that won elections in Italy, Israel and Sweden. increase. Marine Le Pen lost to French President Emmanuel Macron, but her party performed well in the legislative elections.
In the UK, the Conservative Party is likely to face a challenge from the populist right-wing party Reform Britain. Reform Britain has pledged to run candidates for all parties, rather than continue the 2019 Ukip pact not to oppose Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party.
While Richard Theiss’ party is unlikely to win a seat in the next election, turnout is around 8% and most of these will come from disaffected Conservative voters. Greater success could be achieved if Nigel Farage, who made Ukip and the Brexit party more widely known, was more involved.
The Institute argues that anti-populist mainstream parties may need to recognize that they need different anti-populist strategies than those used by mainstream parties when populists are in power. doing.
Mainstream parties have their own distinct and substantive policy agendas, as populist challengers always argue that key issues are not being adequately addressed by mainstream politics It states that campaigns shouldn’t be the focus. The report says major political parties must recognize that voters are increasingly fed up with excessive rhetoric that ignores the problems facing the country.
The report’s author, Brett Meyer, said many countries were seeing a trend toward progressive centrism. The number of populists who hold the
“This is largely due to progressive centre-left leaders replacing the old populist left, and the success of progressive centrism over populism across the Americas. It was also hit hard in the midterm elections.”
But the fate of populism could change this year with elections in Poland and Turkey, where Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government is at stake. “By the end of 2022, Turkey will have the world’s most negative inflation-adjusted interest rates and the lira will have the worst performance of any emerging market against the dollar,” the report said, adding that the Turkish president was happy to speak. warned to do so. Provoking conflicts with Greece and Kurds to provoke nationalist support.
