did US economy Will we actually get into a recession in the first half of this year? New data released by the government on Thursday morning could shed light on a crucial issue.
The Department of Commerce is set to release its third and final estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter at 8:30 a.m., along with the latest growth rates for the past five years. This is an annual process.
GDP, the broadest measure of domestically produced goods and services, officially contracted at an annual rate of 1.6% in the three months from January to March, and fell by 0.6% from April to June. and meet the criteria for it. The so-called technical recession.
Economists surveyed by Refinitiv expect no change in Thursday’s update, which actually showed growth contracted at a pace of 0.6% in the spring.
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According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which tracks recessions, a recession is technically defined by two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, characterized by high unemployment, low or negative GDP growth, declining incomes, Characterized by a slowdown in retail sales.
As the growth rate continues to decline, the economy Recession technical criteriaThis would require a “significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy and lasting for more than a few months.” Still, he, a semi-official arbitrator for the NBER, considers multiple factors when declaring a recession and typically takes up to a year to announce a decision.
The NBER has stressed that it relies on more data than GDP in determining whether there is a recession, such as unemployment and consumer spending, and will continue to do so in the first six months of the year. It was doing well. It also takes into account the depth of the downturn in economic activity.
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“Therefore, real GDP could decline relatively modestly for two consecutive quarters without warranting a judgment that a peak has occurred,” the nonprofit said on its website.
Committees do not meet regularly, but only when the members deem it necessary.
Fears are growing on Wall Street that it could trigger a recession as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates at the fastest pace in 30 years to keep up with runaway inflation.
Policymakers last week approved five consecutive rate hikes, signaling an aggressive path toward future rate hikes.Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also walked away from the promise of a soft landing. It was a delicate balance to keep inflation in check without squeezing growth, warned that fighting inflation justified the “pain” of the economy.
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“As long as policies need to be more restrictive or more restrictive for longer, the chances of a soft landing are likely to decrease,” Powell told reporters in Washington. We are committed to returning inflation to 2%, and we believe failure to restore price stability will mean far greater pain.”